Monday, December 22, 2008

Bailout, why?

Since September 15th 2008 my world in New York City changed, as did a lot of peoples. Lehman went down, AIG got rescued, the US Governemnt gave us TARP, Citi Group almost fell, sales of everything plummeted.

Like so many of us it was like watching a slow speed car chase, every day we were barraged with news of doom and gloom. My friends were getting laid off from good paying finance jobs, and frankly these jobs or equivalents in terms of pay may very well never come back. The Government stepped into save the big companies in an unprecedented interventionism. My situation? I am CEO of my own company, a start up, I take risks. I build or try to build companies. I work hard and think differently. My customers all over the US were all depressed, their sales just stopped. So I’m stuck with a warehouse of inventory. My own factory in SE Asia. And suddenly sales were anemic. The collective ‘we” were all riveted to the news cycle of big finance collapse, and we were all losing sales. Toyota’s sales plummeted 40% in a month. Those numbers are unfathomable, and frankly NO ONE could anticipate or budget for such a mind blowing drop.

I worried, what business owner wouldn’t.

At the same time my “current love of my life” unexpectedly, out of the blue and dramatically ended our relationship. I think the exact words were, “I don’t think I see us together in the long term” and its “just my intuition” Well who am I to argue with the intuition of the Alaskan, ( Born and raised in Alaska) So I left, the next week she wanted me back, we spent the weekend. But her intuition hadn’t changed.

Now I’m at a bit of a loss with this breakup…there is no other person…she’s just well…the Alaskan…an enigma wrapped up in a …well you know the rest.

That was Thanksgiving. So what to do?

I forecast that the first 3 months of 2009 in New York are going to be very depressing. The financial news, layoffs, unemployment, bailouts etc is going to feed us a steady dose of disappointment. With the new administration strategically dumping out as much of the bad news as possible. Lets face it everything that can be blamed on the Bush /Republicans will be and probably some more. Obama and his team will look like saviors if they give us any improvement, so make a low base from where you start. So look for the abd news.

I want to avoid the TV news cycle, CNBC,  NY times, WSJ as much as I can. I want to remove myself from the constant internet. I am an information junky.

So if this prediction is right…I’d say I’m pretty safe in my assumptions… and with my current unattached status why not remove myself from NY, Bailout, so to speak for my sanity. So that’s what I’m doing. 

My goals, simple.

Read.

Write.

Work.

X-Country ski, I never have really…but my goal is to be able to ski 15k in 50minutes…I think that’s a good time.

Downhill ski…as often as possible…I’m fussy…conditions have to be perfect..powder, and preferably a helicopter…but a chairlift will do.

Not worry…

Read the NY times once per week…Sunday.

Check the internet once per day…for emails and research only.

Go from DJIA, VIX, GDP assessments to New snow, outside temperature, miles skied. 

Figure out where the next business opportunity lies. After all no one is going to employ me… 

Enjoy the simple things in life.

Make some new friends, connect with people.

So that’s the goal. Will I be able to do it?

So these are the questions?

Will I find a new business opportunity?

Will the Alaskan come back?

Will I keep away from the Internet?

Perchance a new romance with a “new love of my life”?

I’ve bailedout of NYC. It cost the US treasury zero. I am available to solve GM’s problems if asked. I’d do it for 25% of Rick Waggoners salary and that’s $4m for me. AND I’d personally guarantee the bailout loan…

 

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